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Is August Panic Time for the United States?

According to the pattern of top internet search trends in the United States, August 2017 may be “Panic Time.”  Over ten years of research shows that there is a direct and quantifiable relationship between social mood and the movement of stock and commodities markets in the near future.  Further, information from top search trends can be extracted to give us a “snapshot” of the types of news events and general societal mood to expect at a near future period (as well as market information).  The overall “mood” conveyed by news events and markets in the United States in the month of August could be quite intense and is likely to reflect irrational decisions, strong emotions, and possibly, at times, even panic.   The apparent stimulus for this emotional month may be events taking place outside of the U.S. or situations within the country.

To look at how different areas of the United States are doing relative to each other, we analyzed search trends from around the country geographically.  The map below gives us a picture of the anticipated distribution of mood patterns for the month of August.  The Northwestern U.S. is highlighted as more “emotional” than the rest of the country.  There’s an uncertain something shown off the South Florida coast (or related to Cuba?).  We’ll have to wait and see if this corresponds to anything.  The most significant mood configuration appears to be the area marked as “disruptive” in the Northeastern U.S.  This pattern can reflect social upheaval (unrest, protests, etc).  However, it also shows up in connection with an increase in terrorist activity.  With the center of this area being near NYC, it could also imply market disruption.

This map is not a map of future certainties.  It is a map that shows regions more prone to crises, or at higher risk for “newsworthy” events during the month of August than a "background normal."   Similar to the technology that converts internet trends to “future maps,” daily hot search trends are converted to expected changes in the stock market, crude oil, gold, and the U.S. dollar at MarketMood.net.  We publish daily and weekly forecasts, and discuss trade ideas in our live trading room.  A 15 day free trial is available to check us out.  Hope to see you there!

Panic Time for the United States: U.S. MoodMap August 2017