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U.S. Terrorist Alert through October 12, 2017

Analysis of internet search trend patterns show a high risk of increased terrorist activity through October 12.  Geographical analysis indicates the highest probability within the U.S. is in the area surrounding Denver, Co.  I hope I have your attention, as an alert such as this is not given lightly.  Let me explain how this is arrived at.

Research spanning two decades shows that daily internet search trends can indicate changes in markets as well as alert to categories of upcoming news events several days before they occur.  Likewise, weekly trends can be used to show changes in markets and categories of news events several weeks before they occur.  Because we are looking at U.S. trends here, it will reflect U.S. and world events which have an emotional impact on people in the United States.

During the time of the source data for this alert, the iPhone 8 and X were announced, Hurricane Irma was completing its run of destruction, and NFL pro football season was beginning.  To convert what we were collectively focusing on at that time into numbers that can be analyzed, we start out with translating the search trends into themes.  For the period in question, this was technology, business, wind, rain, nature, uncertainty, death, men, and sports.  This is then converted into relative intensities of what we call four primary mood qualities: Vulnerable, Expansive, Manic, and Controlled.

The chart below may look like colorful spaghetti, but it gives us a great deal of information on when certain types of events are more likely to occur.  The specific configuration that is showing up for the week ahead (the orange Manic line on top, and the gray Controlled line on the bottom) has occurred only one other time this past year (week ending 5/19).  This pattern indicates societal disruption.  When it shows up on a daily scale, it is usually associated with protests or strikes, but can also be associated with "random violence" and increased terrorist activity.  When it shows up on a weekly scale, it almost always is associated with increased terrorist activity.  The terrorist attack at an Ariana Grande concert in Manchester, England occurred on May 22.  While the timing of market reactions is much more precise, it’s not uncommon for news events to slightly lag behind the mood pattern.

If one looks closely at the above chart, it can be seen that the week of 5/19 and the upcoming week ending 10/6 occur in the area marked “Mood/Effect Inversion.”  The “normal” configuration, the gray Controlled line on top and the orange Manic line on the bottom occurred once this year for the week ending 6/9.  On June 14, a group of Republican lawmakers were attacked by a gunman at a baseball field in Virginia.

Analyzing the geographic distribution of our search trend data, we produced the map below.  The black area marked “destructive” is significant, but it is not clear what this is referring to.  It could be pointing to California, or to something in Mexico or Central America that is serious enough to impact (on an emotional level) people in the United States.  There is nothing to do with this other than wait and see what it might be about.  However, the orange circle very close to the Denver, Colorado area is quite specific.  It’s of the type we are on the lookout for (disruptive) and it’s pointing to a very specific area.  While this does not imply that we are certain that a terrorist attack will occur in the Denver area by October 12, it does mean that during a period where increased terrorist activity is likely, that the highest probability for such an event to occur within the U.S. is near Denver, Colorado.  It’s also important to note that we have not yet completed the map for October 8-15 which could provide us with further insight. 

US MoodMap October 1-8, 2017

For those interested, at MarketMood.net we also use this technology to forecast daily and weekly market movement for the stock market, crude oil, gold, and the U.S. Dollar.  You are welcome to come check it out!

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Update Oct. 2, 2017: So far there have been a mass shooting in Las Vegas, terrorist attacks in France and Canada, and violent protests in Catalonia, and the week has just begun.  It's possible that the MoodMap was off and there will be no Denver event.  Perhaps Las Vegas was it.  Let's hope and pray that there is nothing more!

Because this science is in its infancy, we are still learning how to read the MoodMaps.  At times what appears to be multiple events, is actually one event at the center which combines the qualities of all the "pieces."  When the Disruptive component and the Destructive component are taken as one event, it can be seen in the map below that Las Vegas is right in the center.  Surely that event was both destructive and disruptive.